In my pervious speech (18.09.2009) I had promised to discuss the Armenian-Turkish protocols in more detail on some other occasion. I think the current situation, which has been clarified as a result of their signing is the most convenient opportunity for fulfilling that promise. I will try to refrain from making emotional assessments and analyze what has happened, as well as its consequences exclusively from the political perspective. I only have to warn that despite the expectations of the media my speech is going to be not programmatic but explanatory, although I do not deny the need for a programmatic speech as well.
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So, despite the impressive protest rallies in Armenia and in the Diaspora Serge Sargsyan, as was expected, signed the controversial protocols after all, being guided not by state or national interests but by the goal of acquiring external legitimacy and maintaining his hold on power. The unnecessary concession he made allowing the creation of a commission of Armenian and Turkish historians is sufficient for making this claim indisputable because no other consideration could explain it. There is nothing surprising in this: there was a time when in exchange for appropriate services Armenian kings used to receive investiture from Arabs, at other times from Mongols and now apparently Sargsyan is receiving an investiture from the West.
Dear Compatriots,
It's been two and a half months to the day since the Armenian National Congress last summoned a public rally. During that time there has been almost no positive change in the country. It is difficult to point out any domestic or foreign policy field, which registered at least some success, not to mention tangible progress. Just the contrary, we now witness the all-around spread of vicious phenomena typical for the cleptocratic regime, with the state totally criminalized and the problems it faces becoming insurmountable.
Economy
What is happening in the economic field is common knowledge. Despite huge international loans received by Armenia and the government's anti-crisis measures our economy continues to collapse, even more rapidly than before. The most telling proof of this collapse is the dynamics of the economic downturn viewed in comparison with the same time period of the last year, which is 9.3% for January-April, 15.7% for January-May, 16.3% for January-June and 18.5% for January-July correspondingly. Add to this the decline of foreign trade, especially the continuous decrease of exports, the ongoing outflow of the capital, and the incessant decrease of foreign investment and tax revenues, and there will be no other parameter left to assess the state of Armenia's economy.
Nagorno Karabakh
While, as mentioned above, everything is crystal clear in the field of Armenian-Turkish relations, the situation is much more complex in the process of the Karabakh conflict resolution. There are claims spread around that a so called frame agreement was signed at the meeting of Medvedev-Sargsyan-Aliyev on 07.17-18.2009. I don't know whether these claims have any grounds or not, but it is probable that some preliminary protocol has already been signed. Yet this is not what is important. It is not so much the question of whether anything is already signed or not, the real problem is that the Karabakh settlement process has reached a point from which there is no return or retreat for Serge Sargsyan.
Dear compatriots,
It would seem that local elections, or in this case elections to the Council of Elders of Yerevan, should not be a reason to focus too much on foreign policy issues, but the unique situation of Armenia, which is characterized by unprecedented interconnectedness and interdependence of domestic politics and foreign policy, compels us to dwell on these issues over and over again. Presently its necessity is also dictated by disconcerting international developments around Armenia.
The Progression of Events
Even before the passions had calmed down following the failed attempts of the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and the renouncing of the genocide by Serge Sargsyan, during the weeks after the last rally we have become the witnesses of 3 unexpected notable events, which are impossible to ignore.
