Լեւոն Տեր-Պետրոսյանի ելույթը Մարտի 1-ի հանրահավաքում

Dear Compatriots,

On 1 March of this year we together adopted a situational program of demands and actions, consisting of 15 items. During the rally on 17 March, we isolated the three urgent items of the first phase - the release of political prisoners, the removal of the illegal ban on rallies at the Freedom Square, and the official assurance of the willingness to investigate the killings of 1 March, 2008 - the implementation of which is necessary for starting a formal dialogue with the authorities aimed at resolving of the other problems put forward by the society. We also agreed that we are not going to rush, that we are going to act within the confines of the constitution and the law, that we are going to achieve the realization of our demands one step at a time, in a smooth manner and without subjecting the country to social uprisings and political upheaval, not because we dispute the legitimacy of revolutionary methods, but exclusively out of concern that doing those things would increase the probability of Azerbaijan unleashing a war. If some people are skeptical about this, I have no doubt that Azerbaijan will resume hostilities in case of a serious instability in Armenia.

Dear Compatriots,

On 1 March of this year we together adopted a situational program of demands and actions, consisting of 15 items. During the rally on 17 March, we isolated the three urgent items of the first phase – the release of political prisoners, the removal of the illegal ban on rallies at the Freedom Square, and the official assurance of the willingness to investigate the killings of 1 March, 2008 – the implementation of which is necessary for starting a formal dialogue with the authorities aimed at resolving of the other problems put forward by the society. We also agreed that we are not going to rush, that we are going to act within the confines of the constitution and the law, that we are going to achieve the realization of our demands one step at a time, in a smooth manner and without subjecting the country to social uprisings and political upheaval, not because we dispute the legitimacy of revolutionary methods, but exclusively out of concern that doing those things would increase the probability of Azerbaijan unleashing a war. If some people are skeptical about this, I have no doubt that Azerbaijan will resume hostilities in case of a serious instability in Armenia.

Although in my speech during the last rally I discussed the three issues to be resolved in the first phase in detail, I consider it necessary to revisit these issues, even at the cost of having to repeat certain things, in order to fully explain their importance and to make the strategy adopted by the Armenian National Congress intelligible for the whole society. Because I don’t want you to have a blind faith and unconditional trust in the Congress. I want that trust to be anchored in reason and conviction, which is what the success of any major endeavor depends on. In short, I would like each of you, relying not on faith and trust but on cool reason, to accept a certain truth I consider axiomatic, which is that if the three demands listed above are not satisfied in the upcoming days, then neither will the other demands contained in the 1 March statement, aborting the prospect of a dialogue between the authorities and the society, as well as destroying the last chance of achieving national accord, which is imperative if we are to improve Armenia’s international image and the country’s ability to stand up to external challenges. And even though the authorities and the various forces trying to create obstacles for us on the side will bear the main responsibility for wasting that opportunity, we will also not be able to escape our share of responsibility if we do not behave in a reasonable and disciplined manner.

Dear Compatriots,

I promised at the last rally that my speech today would be dedicated primarily to one of the most dangerous and disgraceful problems that plagues Armenia - the incredible depth of the corruption. But before I get on to the core subject, I would like to deal with one absurdity, which is being fed to our people day and night for more than a year already. We are accused of focusing on the foreign policy issues at the expense of the problems of domestic politics, and what is more, statements have been made that the authorities have succeeded in imposing their agenda on the opposition, diverting the latter from the goals of effecting change in the country's domestic life. These nicely formulated and at first convincing-sounding statements, however, have nothing to do either with reality or with the elementary tenets of the study of politics. Putting aside the trivial cliché about international politics being the extension of domestic politics, we should just point out that the separation of domestic and international politics is simply done for reasons of methodological convenience. Any state's foreign and domestic policies form a united whole, and they inform the agendas of both the government and the opposition as such. Domestic politics depends on foreign policy as much as foreign policy depends on domestic politics. No thinking person could raise or has raised objections against the claim that the continued foreign policy failures of the Armenian government are the definite result of the unhealthy internal atmosphere in the country, and in particular the corrupt and illegitimate nature of the authorities. It is equally obvious that many of the negative aspects of the country's domestic life are the consequence of external circumstances. Is it not clear that we would not have political prisoners, fraudulent elections, limitations on democracy, blatant violations of human rights, or corruption that is so widespread, had it not been for the tolerant attitude of the outside world, and had the great powers not regarded all these things as convenient tools in the service of their geopolitical goals? So the activities of the Armenian National Congress are anchored in the realization of the organic interconnectedness of the external and internal problems, and let nobody search for a black cat in a dark room, because there is no cat.

Dear compatriots,

Although I do not have the habit of commenting on thoughts I have expressed previously, I have to make some additional clarifications regarding the claims made in my speech at the ANM congress (07.17.2010), because it has become subject to certain controversies, misunderstandings, and distortions.  All I did in that speech was to make three unrelated assertions stemming from the objective reality.

            First: “Armenia does not have prospects for a secure existence, economic growth and improvement of demographic conditions without resolving the Karabagh conflict and normalizing the Armenian-Turkish relations.”  On par with its intellectual capacity, the official propaganda has interpreted this fairly straightforward assertion as a call to cede Karabagh in order to ensure Armenia’s development. Meanwhile, there is no need to prove that what I have stressed is the need to resolve the Karabagh conflict (and consequently to normalize the Armenia-Turkish relations).  To resolve is one thing, and to cede is another.  Who is telling you to cede anything or to return territories?  If you are opposed to making concessions or compromises, find a resolution without them.  Who wouldn’t be happy about it?  Only whatever route you choose, you have to realize that you have to resolve the conflict – I repeat, resolve the conflict, not concede Karabagh – because…

Dear comrades and guests,

It is obvious that the Congress of the ANM is taking place amidst a supersensitive situation in Armenia both internally and externally and in a situation characterized by serious challenges facing the country. I am not going to provide a detailed analysis of the situation, nor am I going to evaluate the actions of the authorities or those of the opposition stemming from it, and I certainly do not want to criticize or accuse anybody. All possible criticisms and mutual accusations have been aired many times over, and it is hardly possible to add something new to them. As far as the analyses and assessments are concerned, they are available in abundance as well. The question is whether that abundance helps shed light on the vital problems of the state.
Not denying the usefulness of analyses and assessments, from the perspective of practical politics it is more important to calmly uncover and identify those basic realities, which any judicious political force must take into account, be it a force in power or in opposition. Ignoring those realities and allowing oneself to be guided by wishful thinking is equivalent to criminal naiveté or political derangement. If a policy is not based on realities, it can be called anything, but policy.

In my pervious speech (18.09.2009) I had promised to discuss the Armenian-Turkish protocols in more detail on some other occasion. I think the current situation, which has been clarified as a result of their signing is the most convenient opportunity for fulfilling that promise. I will try to refrain from making emotional assessments and analyze what has happened, as well as its consequences exclusively from the political perspective. I only have to warn that despite the expectations of the media my speech is going to be not programmatic but explanatory, although I do not deny the need for a programmatic speech as well.

* * *

So, despite the impressive protest rallies in Armenia and in the Diaspora Serge Sargsyan, as was expected, signed the controversial protocols after all, being guided not by state or national interests but by the goal of acquiring external legitimacy and maintaining his hold on power. The unnecessary concession he made allowing the creation of a commission of Armenian and Turkish historians is sufficient for making this claim indisputable because no other consideration could explain it. There is nothing surprising in this: there was a time when in exchange for appropriate services Armenian kings used to receive investiture from Arabs, at other times from Mongols and now apparently Sargsyan is receiving an investiture from the West.

Dear Compatriots,

It's been two and a half months to the day since the Armenian National Congress last summoned a public rally. During that time there has been almost no positive change in the country. It is difficult to point out any domestic or foreign policy field, which registered at least some success, not to mention tangible progress. Just the contrary, we now witness the all-around spread of vicious phenomena typical for the cleptocratic regime, with the state totally criminalized and the problems it faces becoming insurmountable.

Economy

What is happening in the economic field is common knowledge. Despite huge international loans received by Armenia and the government's anti-crisis measures our economy continues to collapse, even more rapidly than before. The most telling proof of this collapse is the dynamics of the economic downturn viewed in comparison with the same time period of the last year, which is 9.3% for January-April, 15.7% for January-May, 16.3% for January-June and 18.5% for January-July correspondingly. Add to this the decline of foreign trade, especially the continuous decrease of exports, the ongoing outflow of the capital, and the incessant decrease of foreign investment and tax revenues, and there will be no other parameter left to assess the state of Armenia's economy.

Nagorno Karabakh

While, as mentioned above, everything is crystal clear in the field of Armenian-Turkish relations, the situation is much more complex in the process of the Karabakh conflict resolution. There are claims spread around that a so called frame agreement was signed at the meeting of Medvedev-Sargsyan-Aliyev on 07.17-18.2009. I don't know whether these claims have any grounds or not, but it is probable that some preliminary protocol has already been signed. Yet this is not what is important. It is not so much the question of whether anything is already signed or not, the real problem is that the Karabakh settlement process has reached a point from which there is no return or retreat for Serge Sargsyan.

Armenia at the Crossroads of Geopolitical Conflicts

Dear compatriots,

It would seem that local elections, or in this case elections to the Council of Elders of Yerevan, should not be a reason to focus too much on foreign policy issues, but the unique situation of Armenia, which is characterized by unprecedented interconnectedness and interdependence of domestic politics and foreign policy, compels us to dwell on these issues over and over again. Presently its necessity is also dictated by disconcerting international developments around Armenia.

The Progression of Events

Even before the passions had calmed down following the failed attempts of the Turkish-Armenian reconciliation and the renouncing of the genocide by Serge Sargsyan, during the weeks after the last rally we have become the witnesses of 3 unexpected notable events, which are impossible to ignore.